Author: Rusty Russell 2015-10-27 19:33:25
Published on: 2015-10-27T19:33:25+00:00
Anthony Towns suggests that without lightning, as bitcoin adoption increases, either fees rise or the number of transactions per block increases proportionally. He points out that if only 1% of people know about bitcoin and use it whenever it's cheap, then 2% of people knowing about bitcoin give twice as many transactions at any given price level. Metcalf's law is relevant here, as both sides need to "know about bitcoin". For example, if there are 1 billion people initiating 100 transactions per year, but only 1% know about bitcoin, then those 10 million can only use it for one of their annual transactions. However, if the percentage of people who know about bitcoin increases to 2%, then 20 million people can use it for two of their annual transactions. It is unclear how this alters the rest of the calculations, but it is an important consideration when looking at the potential growth of bitcoin adoption.
Updated on: 2023-05-23T21:27:23.529704+00:00