Author: Thomas Voegtlin 2023-08-17 09:36:58+00:00
Published on: 2023-08-17T09:36:58+00:00
The email exchange between Peter and the sender begins with a disagreement over reasoning and numerical values. The sender clarifies that when computing the probability of data loss at a particular connection event, the terms used in the equation must represent the probability of data loss and the probability of being offline for several days at that connection. The sender assumes that the probabilities mentioned in the email are at the connection level, and not per year.The sender points out that the joint probability of Alice losing data and displaying the behavior mentioned in the email is not simply the product of the individual probabilities. They explain that if the behavior is caused by the loss, then the joint probability is closer to the probability of loss alone.To determine whether Bob can profit, the sender suggests looking at the conditional probability of data loss given the information available to Bob. They introduce the concept of P(loss|behavior), which can be computed using Bayes' theorem. The sender mentions that the posterior probability of Alice losing her state will be higher if she behaves as if she has lost it.Regarding the numerical values, the sender does not dispute the probability of data loss per year but highlights that the probability of users connecting without their data becomes higher if restoring channels from seed becomes a feature. They emphasize that the frequency of users restoring their wallet from seed is more relevant than the frequency of actual data loss.The sender also brings up the point that the "behavior" mentioned in the email encompasses all the information available to Bob, not just the fact that Alice has been offline for a few days. They mention that operators of Electrum servers can infer whether Alice has been restoring from seed or not, which could be exploited by an attacker.In conclusion, the sender disagrees with the reasoning and numerical values proposed by Peter. They clarify the terms used in the equations, discuss the joint probability, introduce the concept of conditional probability, and highlight the importance of considering the behavior beyond just being offline for a few days.
Updated on: 2023-08-18T01:51:12.465058+00:00