Author: Mark Friedenbach 2017-06-20 22:48:23
Published on: 2017-06-20T22:48:23+00:00
It is likely that there will be no split on August 1st if Segwit is activated before then, but if activation is through Segwit2x and some nodes follow through with a hard fork 3 months later while others don't, then a split will occur in September or October. There are concerns about whether miners are signaling correctly for Segwit2x, but it is believed they will start to signal properly when the time comes. Segwit2x/BIP91/BIP148 will orphan miners that do not run a Segwit2x (or BIP148) node, but this is not expected to result in a long-lasting chain split because of the ~80% hashrate support on segwit2x. Some believe that any shift away from Bitcoin Core would be permanent, which could lead to a one-way street situation where miners interpret the situation as being forced to run non-reference software in order to prevent a chain split. However, others argue that this is unlikely and that there is a reason why segwit2x is almost unanimously rejected by the technical community. All in all, it remains unclear how the split will play out and how the two chains will match up.
Updated on: 2023-06-12T02:51:26.437560+00:00