Author: Jacob Eliosoff 2017-06-20 22:29:27
Published on: 2017-06-20T22:29:27+00:00
It is likely that if Segwit is activated before August 1, there will be no split on that day. However, if activation is via Segwit2x and some nodes follow through with the hard fork three months later while others do not, a split will occur, probably in September or October. It is unclear how the two chains will match up and how the split will play out.Miners who do not run a Segwit2x node will be orphaned by Segwit2x/BIP91/BIP148 because they would not have the new consensus rule of requiring all blocks to signal for Segwit. However, there would not be a long-lasting chain split due to the ~80% hashrate support on Segwit2x, perhaps only lasting 2-3 blocks at worst.There is debate among miners about whether to choose BIP148 or Segwit2x to activate Segwit. Miners can continue signaling Segwit, which will leave them at least soft-fork compatible with BIP148 and BIP91. However, most Segwit2x signaling miners are reportedly faking it, as they are not signaling Segwit, which is required. The technical community has almost unanimously rejected Segwit2x, and there is concern that if miners interpret the situation as being forced to run non-reference software in order to prevent a chain split due to lack of support from Bitcoin Core, it could lead to a one-way street. All those things (148/91/Segwit2x) effectively guarantee a chain split, so these measures may not prevent it.
Updated on: 2023-06-12T02:52:00.565469+00:00