Published on: 2018-01-21T15:29:26+00:00
Popular hashing algorithms typically last around 10-15 years before flaws are found, and SHA-256 is currently showing signs of aging. As cryptocurrencies and blockchains require cryptography updates every decade or so to maintain security, planning for future algorithm updates is crucial.A recent email exchange on the bitcoin-dev mailing list discussed Bitcoin's maximum difficulty, which according to Moore's law would be reached in about 400 years. This means that block time will decrease, causing blocks to be mined faster than photons can travel across the planet. This raises concerns about the future dominance of Bitcoin and the need to prepare for potential shifts towards other cryptocurrencies.To address this issue, the development team must evaluate trade-offs between algorithms and come to a consensus on the optimal solution. This involves examining working solutions, transferring them to BIPs (Bitcoin Improvement Proposals), creating code, testing it, and achieving consensus. The field of cryptocurrency is still relatively young, with ongoing research and development in areas such as migrating to a proof-of-work system supporting even higher difficulty levels.However, there are differing opinions on whether reaching Bitcoin's maximum difficulty within 400 years is scientifically possible. While some argue that Moore's law predicts this scenario, others point out that it would require computational power beyond human capabilities. Mathematical breakthroughs might improve preimage attacks on the SHA-256 algorithm, but performing such work is currently impossible for humans.One proposal to address Bitcoin's maximum difficulty is to fork off a blockchain that accepts blocks with less than max difficulty, creating a soft fork. Additionally, the difficulty field could be extended to represent a higher max difficulty under a different hashing function like SHA512, resulting in a hard fork. This blockchain would remain identical to Bitcoin until the difficulty becomes too high, at which point it diverges.Peter Todd, a member of the bitcoin-dev mailing list, disputed the notion of Bitcoin's difficulty being maxed out by Moore's Law within 400 years. He argued that if Moore's Law were to last that long, mining Bitcoin blocks would require unimaginable energy levels. Todd also highlighted the problem of the speed of light, stating that we would run out of energy in our 10-minute light radius. He considered this matter to be more suited for science fiction writers than the bitcoin-dev community.In conclusion, according to Moore's law, Bitcoin's difficulty is predicted to reach its maximum within 400 years. This raises concerns about block time decreasing and potential shifts in cryptocurrency dominance. While there are currently no distinct plans for migrating to a proof-of-work system supporting even higher difficulty levels, it is important to evaluate trade-offs and plan for the future to mitigate potential losses.
Updated on: 2023-08-01T22:29:34.336218+00:00