Author: Eric Lombrozo 2015-08-05 03:07:48
Published on: 2015-08-05T03:07:48+00:00
The use of prediction markets to speculate on fake markets is not practical. This is due to the fact that there is no money at stake in these prediction games, hence the results are implausible. Some preliminary results have been obtained using a prediction market to wrestle with the tough tradeoffs and seem roughly correct. The scicast prediction market is currently shut down since early July, so the numbers aren't live. The daily transaction volume has only increased by 15% due to block size increase, which is surprising. It is suggested that a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably be enough for the next two years. Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to increasing block sizes seems to be quite an indictment as far as centralisation risks go. However, given the lack of convincing predictions, it is not clear whether this weight should be given to this prediction. Instead of speculating on fake markets, theory, empirical data, and engineering should be used to solve the problem at hand.
Updated on: 2023-06-10T18:06:11.773592+00:00